With just days to the highly anticipated general presidential and parliamentary elections scheduled for Thursday, 15th January 2026; political analyst Joseph Pintyek Ochieno has cautioned that the outcome of the presidential race remains deeply uncertain, likening the contest to sitting for an examination whose results cannot be predicted until the very end.
Speaking during NBS Morning Breeze on Monday, Ochieno said that with eight candidates officially in the race, political dynamics on the ground indicate extreme uncertainty.
“Elections are just like exams,the level of uncertainty is very hard. You only know the outcome when the results are finally declared,” he said.
Ochieno argued that while discussions often focus on multiple contenders, realism demands attention to the candidates with the strongest national traction effectively narrowing the election to a two-candidate contest.
“To be fair, you have to narrow it down to the most serious candidates. When I don’t mention Candidate Muntu, some people will not feel good, but this election is about the top two candidates,” he said.
Ochieno further warned against over interpreting the massive crowds witnessed at campaign rallies across the country, saying public turnouts do not always translate directly into votes. Nevertheless, he acknowledged that the scale of mobilisation being displayed should keep the leading candidates on edge.
“If the crowds will translate into votes, there is reason for both candidate Museveni and candidate Kyagulanyi to be anxious,” he said, underscoring the unpredictable nature of voter behavior.
The analyst also highlighted a critical weakness in the country’s electoral environment: the lack of reliable, independent, and consistent opinion polling. According to him, this gap leaves both voters and analysts without objective tools to measure shifts in public opinion as election day approaches.
“It would have been very nice if we had established systems where people in academia and research conduct regular opinion polls. That way, we would know, on a week-by-week basis, who is leading and where,” he said.
